Race output

Churchill Downs · May 2, 2026 · Race 4

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Contested dual-speed

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 11

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Ways and Means was winning with Prat but lists Ortiz JL (elite swap); Splendora moves from Hernandez to Prat for Baffert.

Age maturity: Four-year-old profile dominates this fillies-and-mares sprint window; R Disaster (5) is the hardened speed veteran.

Trainer signal: PP cites Brown long-layoff dirt stats for Ways and Means and Baffert readiness patterns for Usha/Splendora; Joseph runners secondary on peak figures.

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - >90d negatives on Ways and Means and Autumn Evening for this dirt sprint; Usha also returning after months since La Brea—Splendora and R Disaster arrive race-fit; layoff runners seek progression next start if dull.

Speed trend: Splendora ascending/stable at 96–100 recently; Ways peaks at 111 last summer then idle—unknown short-cycle trend but ceiling leader; R Disaster mid-90s with fade last; Usha last-out 99 spike after softer prior.

Surface switch: Ways last CD try was sealed/sloppy Derby City Distaff—today fast dirt is a cleaner comparable to her dry best; others largely straight dirt lines.

Today's surface speeds: Splendora 97 BC FM Sprint 7f dirt and 100 Beholder Mile dirt; Ways 102–111 CD dirt forms (sloppy vs dry caveat); Usha 99 La Brea 7f dirt; R Disaster 96 Madison dirt.

Recent competitiveness: Splendora and Usha last-out winners at graded levels; R Disaster hit board earlier cycle but last faded G1; Autumn Evening far back pre-layoff.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Splendora fresh Grade I winner without long layoff fits top-form rule; Usha also won prior start but returns after a gap—positive signal diluted.

Speed tier: Recent top cluster: Ways and Means 111, Splendora 100/96, Usha 99, R Disaster 96—Autumn Evening trails by wide margin on Beyers.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Usha sits >5 points off Ways/Splendora ceilings yet brings fresh Grade I speed and forward tactical chart—live exotics piece if firing first off bench.

Pace groups: Leader/Speed: R Disaster, Usha (send/stalk options); Tracker: Splendora, Ways and Means; Mid-Pack: Autumn Evening; Closer: none pure—Autumn deepest off pace.

Pace pressure: Multiple high-EP types should force honest fractions; survivors need LP—Splendora/Ways best composite balance if pace cooks R Disaster.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Five-runner spacing limits pure chaos—Usha inside must negotiate early pressure from outer speed; Splendora/Ways mid/outside can stalk paths; Autumn Evening saved-trip dependent.

Outside speed choice: FLAGGED EDGE

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: Not flagged

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Declared speed exists—default to strong LP stalkers with tactical riders rather than needing pace-collapse guess.

EP+LP insight: Splendora/Ways moderate EP plus usable LP fits stalk-and-punch behind burn; R Disaster extreme EP+weak LP signals pace vulnerability if pressured.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: No deep closer reliance—low-EP closer caveat barely applies; EP+LP mainly validates trackers vs lone-speed fade.

Maiden starts: Not maiden conditions—framework inactive.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: N/A—Grade I stakes field.

Maiden jockey/trainer: N/A—senior stakes runners.

Maiden workouts: N/A beyond general PP maintenance reads.

Maiden firster policy: N/A—no debut runners in frame.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: N/A—not a 2yo/firster-heavy maiden.

Maiden step-forward: N/A—stakes speed tiers drive cuts.

Keep: 1 Usha | 4 Ways and Means | 5 Splendora | 6 R Disaster

Toss: 3 Autumn Evening

Keep/toss rationale: Four graded winners own the speed tier and tactical routes; Autumn Evening is months away with Beyers far below par and no conversion signal at this level.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.

Top 4

  1. 5 Splendora
  2. 4 Ways and Means
  3. 1 Usha
  4. 6 R Disaster

Wagering

No wagering structure in this save (run a new analysis to populate betting fields).

Summary

Scratching 2 Haulin Ice leaves a five-runner Grade I where R Disaster and Usha define an honest dual-speed pace—not lone-leader—so Splendora (Tracker) and Ways and Means (Tracker) gain stalk-and-punch EP+LP appeal while R Disaster’s giant EP/tiny LP flags fade risk under pressure. Posts angle inside pressure on Usha’s forward run versus R Disaster’s outside tactical send; no eight-horse rail-traffic panic but rail-speed pressure remains live. Class and distance are neutral high-level checks—most arrive with true seven-furlong dirt credits—while multiple >90-day layoffs (especially Ways and Means and Autumn Evening) tilt freshness to Splendora and R Disaster on dirt sprints. Splendora carries winning-form and top recent speed-tier stability; Ways owns the ceiling Beyer but layoff and Ortiz-for-Prat swap add variance; Usha is appreciably lower on figures yet Baffert-class and live underneath; Autumn Evening lacks competitiveness and is tossed. Maiden-specific rules do not apply.