Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest contested

Class move score: 11

Distance change score: 00

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Several shuffles; Roar Ready with Alvarado reads as a live pilot upgrade on deep-closer trips; Pure Class back to Gonzalez vs Morelos last is a change without clear edge.

Age maturity: Older sprint-tested field—no meaningful 3yo maturity edge; mostly seasoned dirt routers cutting back to 7f.

Trainer signal: No barn-change smoking guns; Zito (Vigano) quiet stat line vs Barboza/Lerman active sprint barns—mixed signals only.

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - Pure Class (~4.5mo) and Manor House (multi-month) off long gaps—negative bias especially on a surface jump; others are in regular 2026 campaigns with Top Maverick on a 2nd-off-layoff progression arc from prior patterns.

Speed trend: Top Maverick last-three stack (≈85→95) is upward/stable top-tier; Roar Ready oscillates but fresh numbers include an 89 rally; Pure Class regressed into last (77-type) off top; Manor House last figure implosion.

Surface switch: Today is turf while most PPs are fast/sloppy dirt—translation risk; only light career turf samples (e.g., Fiveeyesonskystars/Vigano sparse turf earnings) so speed ranks need a discount vs true turf specialists.

Today's surface speeds: Thin today-surface anchors—lean on dirt parallels for Top Maverick/Roar Ready/Vigano and treat figures as conditional until turf confirms.

Recent competitiveness: Top Maverick consecutive wins with strong figures; Roar Ready/Fiveeyesonskystars/Vigano recent board/close finishes; Pure Class last was well-beaten after class/schedule gap; Manor House last non-competitive.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Top Maverick enters off back-to-back wins (not off a long layoff)—positive top-form; Top Maverick’s streak is the cleanest winner angle in the field.

Speed tier: Likely top recent-figure cluster: Top Maverick (≈95/85 tail), Fiveeyesonskystars (89 rally), Roar Ready (≈88–89), Alarik (92 spike) vs Pure Class/ Manor House tails.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Vigano EP reads soft but PP is a habitual deep closer with LP 95 and credible 88-type recent—live if pace overtaxes forward runners despite being >5 below the hottest tops on paper.

Pace groups: PP-first: Manor House & Alarik forward (Leader / Leader-lean Stalker) with EP 94/90 aligning; Pure Class typically stalks presses (Stalker, EP 80 still lets him stay forward tactically); Top Maverick shadows/stalks (Stalker, EP 63); Fiveeyesonskystars, Roar Ready, Vigano drop in and rally (Closer; EP 60 with LP 95–98).

Pace pressure: Manor House (Leader) vs Alarik (high-EP forward stalker) are only ~4 EP points (~0.8 len) if both send—duel/pressure likely; Pure Class ~10–14 EP points behind that pair (~2–3 len) stalking; closers sit farther back spacing into the first turn.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Seven-horse configuration eases extreme rail chaos; nevertheless inside-forward types can still see tighten off a hot duel while outside closers may need clear widen lanes late.

Outside speed choice: Not flagged

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: Not flagged

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Speed is defined forward (Manor/Alarik) with stalkers/closers layered—prefer strong LP stalkers (Top Maverick) or finishing kick closers if the pace overloads.

EP+LP insight: EP+LP fits Leader/Stalker fronts for Manor/Alarik (high EP, middling LP) and supports stalk/closer roles for Top Maverick vs Roar Ready/Vigano—do not conflate 5 EP≈1 len early with ~2 Beyer≈1 len late.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Deep closers (Roar Ready/Vigano/Fiveeyesonskystars) rely on melting pace—mid-race pace figure gaps limit EP+LP precision.

Maiden starts: Not a maiden—experience counts are irrelevant to maiden step-forward windows.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: N/A—non-maiden claiming.

Maiden jockey/trainer: N/A—non-maiden claiming.

Maiden workouts: N/A—non-maiden claiming.

Maiden firster policy: N/A—non-maiden claiming.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: N/A—non-2yo maiden context.

Maiden step-forward: N/A—evaluate class-drop dirt horses on turf as cautiously live rather than maiden improver ladders.

Keep: 4 Top Maverick | 6 Roar Ready | 2 Fiveeyesonskystars | 7 Vigano | 5 Alarik (Chi) | 1 Pure Class

Toss: 3 Manor House

Keep/toss rationale: Keep forward tactics plus best recent win forms and closers with LP; toss Manor House off catastrophic last, long absence, and gate incident risk despite pace role.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.