Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest / contested (multiple E.P.-heavy forwards)

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 11

Jockey change: Not flagged - No clear upgrade; top barns use familiar elite riders (Saez, Prat, Gaffalione, Geroux, Ortiz) without a decisive switch read from text.

Age maturity: Full 3yo fillies only; small maturity edges but no older-horse spread—prefer progressive profiles and routing/turf miles.

Trainer signal: Cox (2), Walsh (2), Maker, McPeek, Arnold and others are credible; limited explicit intent stats in excerpt—lean on placement patterns instead.

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - >90d returns for Embrace Time, Cooperation, Raiding Party, Turner’s Charm (and Soloist AE) are negatives for peak certainty on turf routes; 2nd/3rd off layoff positives not widely shown yet among favorites.

Speed trend: Good Family up sharply last two; Call On Me last-out turf spike vs earlier GP; several reappearance lines make 3-race trend incomplete; some weaker recent figs (Nelson’s Penny, More Carats) imply regression risk.

Surface switch: Most mapped runs are turf/synth last time; Cool American’s recent synth win is a surface-switch question to CD turf; several dirt-class runners (e.g. Go to Girl AE history) are less proven on today’s lawn.

Today's surface speeds: Turf-route highlights in text include Good Family ~77 (FG) and Call On Me ~79 (KEE) as recent tops; Rhythm Lady ~75 (turf allow.); Embrace Time ~87 (SAR MSW) also relevant if form transfers.

Recent competitiveness: Multiple last-race winners (Good Family, Embrace Time, Cooperation, Cool American, Raiding Party); Call On Me was a strong closing 2nd—competitive without a win.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Good Family and Cool American won last without a long layoff caveat; layoff winners still won last but do not get the extra “hot form” bump per rule.

Speed tier: Recent turf-type peaks cluster Call On Me (~79), Good Family (~77), Embrace Time (~87 SAR), Rhythm Lady (~75) as the likely top 3–4 speed tiers in excerpted figures.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Turner’s Charm and Nelson’s Penny show softer recent numbers but stay live on class touches (stakes hints in lines), trainer/jockey quality, or pace/trip improvement off spacing—still need step forward vs top-tier figs.

Pace groups: Leader/Speed: Cooperation, Rhythm Lady, Soloist (AE). Tracker: Good Family, Raiding Party, Callmeyourmajesty. Mid-Pack: Call On Me, Nelson’s Penny, Turner's Charm, Embrace Time. Closer: More Carats, Cool American; Go to Girl AE reads closer on turf try.

Pace pressure: Several high-E.P. types should force an honest pace; high-E.P./low-L.P. Cooperation may soften if pressed, opening a stalk-and-finish path for strong L.P. trackers.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: 10-runner mile+ turf: outside attacks need E.P. to avoid wide/washed-out trips; middle posts can float wide into bends if flanked; low-E.P. inside closers risk cover loss behind a busy pace.

Outside speed choice: FLAGGED EDGE

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: FLAGGED RISK

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Sufficient forward speed signed—prefer balanced E.P.+L.P. stalkers and quality closers if the pace overstates, not pure pace-guessing.

EP+LP insight: Good Family/Rhythm Lady E.P.+L.P. balances fit routing stalk roles; pure speed entries show E.P.>>L.P. separation worth monitoring for fade risk.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Deeper setups (e.g., More Carats-style low-E.P. closes) can look worse on E.P.+L.P. despite route closers winning with pace help—do not downgrade solely on composite.

Maiden starts: Not a maiden—N1X/AOC 3yo fillies; maiden start-count heuristics largely N/A.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: Not maiden-conditioned; no MSW→MdClm drop angle.

Maiden jockey/trainer: Not maiden-focused; lean on established barn/jock fit for lightly raced 3yos if applied.

Maiden workouts: Not maiden-firster centric—works cited are general fitness maintenance across the field.

Maiden firster policy: No true first-time starters highlighted as contenders—firster elimination policy does not drive this AOC puzzle.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: Not a 2yo maiden/firster-heavy heat—pedigree price proxy largely unnecessary vs established form.

Maiden step-forward: Non-maiden allowance—‘step forward’ reads via recent fig jumps (Good Family, Call On Me) vs static slower lines (More Carats, Cool American).

Keep: 5 Good Family | 9 Call On Me | 2 Rhythm Lady | 1 Embrace Time | 7 Raiding Party (Ire) | 6 Nelson's Penny | 10 Turner's Charm | 3 Cooperation (Fr)

Toss: 8 More Carats | 4 Cool American | 11 Soloist (AE) | 12 Go to Girl (AE) | 13 Callmeyourmajesty (AE)

Keep/toss rationale: Keep the top turf-route figures/profiles plus tactical pace types and stakes-quality backups; toss the thinnest recent turf speed/impact lines, synth-oriented last, and AE longshots lacking a clean today-turf edge vs price.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.