Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest / pressured

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 00

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Upgrade: Prat named on lightly raced Portfolio Duration (rider-choice angle in notes).

Age maturity: Mature 4–5yo fillies/mares field with limited 3yo tilt, so peak-form veterans carry more weight than upside age curves.

Trainer signal: Strong signals for Brown (Portfolio Duration, Maggie Go) and Maker (Pin Up Betty second-off-layoff spot); Motion Italian Soiree fits turf routes but sprint-to-mile stretch is the question.

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - >90d gaps show for multiple (e.g., Pin Up Betty progression path); turf mile is somewhat forgiving versus dirt sprints, and Pin Up Betty profiles as a positive 2nd-off-layoff.

Speed trend: Leaders cluster: Classic Q volatile but last-3 includes a new 94 top; Pin Up Betty stable 92–91; Sweet Rebecca 88–86 off a peak 90; Italian Soiree last-3 mixed with a big 93 sprint spike; several others 82–87 without new tops.

Surface switch: All listed as turf today versus mostly turf last outs; no dirt-to-turf or turf-to-dirt penalized flips among the main contenders.

Today's surface speeds: Pin Up Betty and Classic Q bring strong recent CD/Churchill turf-mile Beyers (low-90s to mid-90s); Movin’ On Up also has prior CD Distaff Turf Mile-type numbers in range.

Recent competitiveness: Multiple hit-the-board efforts at stakes levels (Classic Q, Pin Up Betty, Sweet Rebecca, Movin’ On Up); Portfolio Duration arrives off a sharp allowance win.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Portfolio Duration won last start without an obvious fresh-off-90d return caveat; Italian Soiree’s latest win is a sprint class rise into a tougher mile.

Speed tier: Likely top recent turf speed shelf: Classic Q (94/92), Pin Up Betty (92–93), Italian Soiree (93) with mile validation caveat, then Movin’ On Up/Sweet Rebecca high-80s/low-90s versions.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Portfolio Duration (~87) is >5 below the top trio but live for barn/rider upside, allowance win, and logical progression into a graded debut.

Pace groups: Leader/Speed: Italian Soiree, Movin’ On Up, pressing Classic Q; Tracker: Sweet Rebecca, Maggie Go; Mid-pack/stalk: Portfolio Duration, Pin Up Betty; Closer: Temptable, Vina Arana.

Pace pressure: Multiple high-EP types should force an honest mile; best survivors often need strong LP off pressure—trackers/closers benefit if early duel overcommits.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: 9 runners: inside singlespeed sends can be pressured; middle posts often versatile; wide breaks from outside posts need clearance into the first turn on turf.

Outside speed choice: Not flagged

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: Not flagged

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Speed exists; if nothing clears, default to forward riders with the best late speed figures.

EP+LP insight: Italian Soiree EP>LP reads pacey but vulnerable late; Sweet Rebecca balanced forward; Pin Up Betty and Temptable show high LP support for finishing kicks; keep speed-rank separate.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Deep closers/low EP (e.g., Vina Arana) make EP+LP less central—prefer verified pace collapse and speed-figure closers.

Maiden starts: Not a maiden race; start-count framework not primary.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: N/A—stakes mile, not maidens.

Maiden jockey/trainer: N/A—stakes mile, not maidens.

Maiden workouts: N/A—stakes mile, not maidens.

Maiden firster policy: N/A—no first-time starters in this field.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: N/A—4yo+ stakes field, not 2yo-heavy maidens.

Maiden step-forward: N/A—non-maiden context.

Keep: 5 Classic Q | 8 Pin Up Betty | 2 Sweet Rebecca | 1 Italian Soiree | 3 Portfolio Duration | 7 Movin' On Up

Toss: 6 Vina Arana | 4 Temptable (GB) | 9 Maggie Go (Arg)

Keep/toss rationale: Kept the proven graded CD/turf miles speed and the main pace players with tactical options; tossed the clear class/trip longshot, the still-integrating Euro shipper at a hard class jump, and the barn’s secondary runner off a softer figure.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.