Race output

Churchill Downs · May 7, 2026 · Race 8

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest with multi-speed pressure / potential duel

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 11

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Good Family takes Irad Ortiz Jr off a Zayas win—upgrade; other switches minor/unclear.

Age maturity: Uniform 3yo fillies; pedigrees and seasoning vary more than age bands.

Trainer signal: Cox tandem plus Walsh turf-route numbers read strongest; low-sample barns add variance.

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - Several contenders align with long-recovery trainer buckets; turf route more forgiving than dirt sprint; 2nd/3rd-off positives still possible vs 1st-off.

Speed trend: Good Family/Call On Me upward into last wins; Rhythm Lady spiked last; comebackers stable but verification risk; More Carats/Nelsons Penny softer recent tiers.

Surface switch: Today turf; Cool American and More Carats exit dirt—need translation; most top rivals already have turf routes.

Today's surface speeds: Good Family 77 last FG turf mile win; Call On Me 79 Keeneland turf route; Rhythm Lady 101 Keeneland turf mile; Raiding Party 79 Keeneland turf route; Turner's Charm 69 last turf (prior 90).

Recent competitiveness: Multiple exiting wins or sharp thirds (Rhythm Lady, Call On Me, Good Family); Nelson's Penny and More Carats lacked late boards recently.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Good Family, Call On Me, Raiding Party, Embrace Time, Cooperation, Cool American exit wins—value strongest where no >90d layoff and surface fits.

Speed tier: Recent top cluster: Rhythm Lady 101, Embrace Time 87, Call On Me ~79, Raiding Party 79, Good Family 77, Turner's Charm prior 90—More Carats sub-tier.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Turner's Charm/Nelson's Penny if 5-7+ below top figures—class, trip, or second-off routes offer excuses.

Pace groups: Leader/Speed: Cooperation, Rhythm Lady, Raiding Party; Tracker: Good Family, Nelson's Penny; Mid-Pack: Cool American, More Carats, Turner's Charm; Closer: Call On Me, Embrace Time.

Pace pressure: No lone freebie—multiple 90+ EP types can force honest fractions; LP 82+ (Good Family, Call On Me) best suited to survive pressure.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Ten runners; rail at 36'—inside low-EP can get shuffled; middle draws usually flexible; outside needs clearance on first bend unless forwarding.

Outside speed choice: Not flagged

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: FLAGGED RISK

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Speed exists—if pace collapses unexpectedly, prioritize high-LP trackers (Good Family, Call On Me) over one-run closers.

EP+LP insight: EP+LP favors Good Family and pressured leaders; Cooperation high EP/low LP warns fade risk.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Deep closers (Call On Me, Embrace rally types) need pace help; low EP makes EP+LP less diagnostic mid-race.

Maiden starts: Not a maiden—N1X optional claimer for winners; maiden start-count rules N/A.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: No MSW-to-MCL drop angle today.

Maiden jockey/trainer: N/A beyond general rider quality on experienced winners.

Maiden workouts: N/A for race type; workouts still support layoff runners (Embrace, Cooperation).

Maiden firster policy: No first-time starters in main field; policy idle.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: N/A—3yo N1X turf, not 2yo firster flood.

Maiden step-forward: N/A—use allowance progression and speed tiers instead.

Keep: 5 Good Family | 9 Call On Me | 2 Rhythm Lady | 7 Raiding Party (Ire) | 1 Embrace Time | 10 Turner's Charm | 6 Nelson's Penny | 3 Cooperation (Fr)

Toss: 8 More Carats | 4 Cool American | 11 Soloist | 12 Go to Girl | 13 Callmeyourmajesty

Keep/toss rationale: Keep speed/turf-route winners and high-Beyer profiles; toss sub-tier speed (More Carats), dirt-recent questionable translation (Cool American), and AE/extra entries lacking tight win picture.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.

Top 4

  1. 5 Good Family
  2. 9 Call On Me
  3. 2 Rhythm Lady
  4. 7 Raiding Party (Ire)

Wagering

No wagering structure in this save (run a new analysis to populate betting fields).

Summary

Honest turf mile pace should feature Cooperation, Rhythm Lady, and Raiding Party up front, so no lone-speed edge and LP durability matters. Good Family profiles as a strong EP+LP tracker with Cox/Irad and a last-out turf mile win; Call On Me brings the best late kick if pressure holds. Rhythm Lady owns the top recent figure but must prove 101 holds against class jump and hot fractions. Raiding Party and Embrace Time are live with proven turf routes yet carry layoff/comeback caution versus Good Family and Call On Me’s sharper cycles. Inside low-EP types risk traffic in a ten-horse field while outside runners need clean trips into the first bend. Class is mostly a lateral or mild rise for recent MSW winners into this N1X optional claimer, so prioritize today’s turf speed tiers, winning form where not first-off long layoff, and the mandatory speed-tier rule—More Carats sits appreciably below unless unseen upside appears.