Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest contested

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 11

Jockey change: Not flagged - No clear rider-choice or decisive barn switch noted in the card text; several ship with strong regular riders.

Age maturity: Uniform 3-year-old fillies—class and race experience matter more than age spreads here.

Trainer signal: Big-name barns (Cox, Maker, Walsh, McPeek) are common, but no claim/placement signal stands out from the excerpt alone.

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - >90-day patterns show for several (e.g., Raiding Party/Turner's Charm/Cooperation-style returns); as a turf route this is less punitive than a dirt sprint, but pure ‘single-run’ and long-cycle types need a progression check.

Speed trend: Rhythm Lady, Good Family, Call On Me, and Turner’s Charm show stable-to-up recent tiers; More Carats/Cool American trend soft; Go to Girl’s last was a fade off a good prior ceiling.

Surface switch: Most key tries are already turf routes/sprints; any dirt-heavy resumes (e.g., parts of Go to Girl/Callmeyourmajesty) are a minor switch risk versus confirmed turf routes.

Today's surface speeds: Rhythm Lady 101 (turf route), Call On Me/Good Family ~98 (turf routes), Raiding Party 103 (turf route debut), Nelson’s Penny 94 (turf sprint in last) anchor today’s surface context.

Recent competitiveness: Several shortlisters are last-race winners or were ‘in the mix’ late (Rhythm Lady, Good Family, Call On Me, Raiding Party).

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Good Family, Call On Me, Embrace Time, Cooperation, and Raiding Party exit wins (Raiding Party’s is older-cycle).

Speed tier: Trip-adjusted top Beyer band centers on Raiding Party 103, Rhythm Lady 101, then Good Family/Call On Me ~98 as the core 3–4-speed pool; 94 types (Turner’s Charm/Nelson’s Penny) sit just beneath.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Go to Girl (~89 last with ~95 G1 ceiling) is >5 pts under the top trio but stays live on class ceiling and route upside if pace tilts forward.

Pace groups: Leader: Cooperation (wire-style last). Leader/presser: Good Family (cleared/bid). Stalker: Rhythm Lady, Call On Me, Raiding Party (tracked/bid), Turner’s Charm, Nelson’s Penny, Soloist (AE). Mid-pack: More Carats, Cool American. Closer lean: Go to Girl (deep chase lines exist) despite high LP. EP/LP largely aligns except deep closer LP reads can oversell Go to Girl’s early intent.

Pace pressure: Cooperation EP 101 vs Good Family EP 99 is only ~0.4 length at 5≈1 length, so expect forward pressure not a free solo; Rhythm Lady EP 94 is ~1.4 lengths behind Cooperation if both fire, making a duel+stalk trip more likely than lone speed.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Posts not printed in the excerpt; in a full field, wide draws hurt only if riders must inherit kickback; inside low-EP runners can get sealed on the turf mile bend.

Outside speed choice: Not flagged

Rail speed pressure: Not flagged

Rail low-EP traffic risk: FLAGGED RISK

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - N/A—there is clear forward intent from multiple EP leaders/pressers.

EP+LP insight: High EP with strong LP (Good Family, Rhythm Lady, Call On Me) fits routing; Cooperation’s huge EP vs weak LP flags speed exhaustion risk but still forces the pace early per PP.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Go to Girl’s high LP can flatter a closer profile when earlier pace figures are volatile; Cooperation’s EP+LP split is extreme early lean.

Maiden starts: Not a maiden race—framework largely N/A; references below default negative/off.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: N/A—today is N1X/OC, not maiden claiming.

Maiden jockey/trainer: N/A for maiden-firster math; several runners are lightly raced but not true maidens.

Maiden workouts: Bullet maintenance patterns appear on multiple but not used as maiden debut gatekeeping here.

Maiden firster policy: No first-time starters in the main contention pool.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: N/A—this is not a 2yo maiden flood.

Maiden step-forward: N/A—handicap leans on allowance/graded-experience speed tiers instead.

Keep: 5 Good Family | 2 Rhythm Lady | 7 Raiding Party (Ire) | 9 Call On Me | 10 Turner's Charm | 12 Go to Girl | 1 Embrace Time | 6 Nelson's Penny

Toss: 8 More Carats | 4 Cool American | 3 Cooperation (Fr) | 13 Callmeyourmajesty

Keep/toss rationale: Keep the 96–103 speed core plus Turner’s Charm/Go to Girl upside; toss clearly sub-tier last figures (More Carats/Cool American) and Cooperation’s win-figure tier vs this field, with Callmeyourmajesty lacking the same peak.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.