Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest / one main speed pressed

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 00

Jockey change: Not flagged - Most shippers retain familiar Gulfstream/Tam riders—no clear barn-to-star switch on the main contenders.

Age maturity: 3yo Corbet’s Crush is still climbing versus fully seasoned mares led by 4–7yo Thankully/Royally Blue/Cly Soldier.

Trainer signal: Weaver’s Thankully barn offers the best composite sprint intent; secondary outfits are spottier execution-wise.

Layoff pattern: No major red flag - Primary contenders are cycling quickly off 2026 GP preps; Ratu Jawa has historic gaps from troubled routes but last was a sharp sprint win, putting her on a possible second-crack allowance progression rather than a flag on the keys.

Speed trend: Thankully holds a stable 89–93 band; Royally Blue surged to 91 off closer trips; Corbet’s Crush spiked to 88 last; Moretastic/Free to Roam trend down on figures.

Surface switch: Today’s turf rewards Thankully/Royally Blue/Clay Soldier GP turf résumés; Corbet’s Crush is 0-for-turf (synth routes) and must prove the surface translation.

Today's surface speeds: Thankully posted 93 on GP turf optional last winter; Royally Blue owns repeated GP turf rallies in the low-to-mid-90s; Clay Soldier has prior turf tries at the level; Corbet’s Crush must rely on synth parallels until proven.

Recent competitiveness: Thankully has hit the board in recent stakes/allowance heats; Royally Blue just closed to victory; Corbet’s Crush exits a sharp synth score; Clay Soldier was a close second in latest N1X prep.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Corbet’s Crush and Ratu Jawa arrive off wins without an intervening layoff, adding progression credit even if Thankully’s last was a close third.

Speed tier: Recent Beyers cluster Thankully/Royally Blue/Corbet’s Crush/Clay Soldier near the 88–93 top with Ratu Jawa touching the fringe at 88 last.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - The Dove Rules and Free to Roam sit >5 pts off peak on latest tries but stay live for pace meltdown or route-cutback rebound given high historical ceilings.

Pace groups: Leader: Thankully (EP91, PP press/duel patterns). Stalker: Corbet’s Crush and Clay Soldier (PP stalk/press lines; EP aligns forward). Mid-pack: The Dove Rules, Moretastic. Closer: Royally Blue (EP65/LP79, deep-rally PP); Free to Roam (EP67/LP84) and Ratu Jawa (EP59/LP81) fit late-run profiles aligned with low EP/high LP.

Pace pressure: Thankully’s ~6 EP edge on Corbet’s Crush is ~1.2 lengths if both leave; Clay Soldier another ~1+ length back—honest Gulfstream pace without a second habitual wire Leader, letting stalkers sit press-and-pounce trips.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Eight-stall draw: high-EP Corbet’s Crush from the rail must secure early position outside Thankully; middle paths for Clay Soldier/Royally Blue; wide Free to Roam/Ratu Jawa need pace help or clean lanes.

Outside speed choice: Not flagged

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: Not flagged

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Thankully supplies a defined early template, so emphasize finishers with trustworthy LP unless she fails to fire on the lawn.

EP+LP insight: Thankully’s EP+LP matches press-and-finish role; Royally Blue’s low EP/high LP echoes PP closer trips—do not demote Thankully off pace if stalk lines vary; separations use 5 EP≈1 length early, separate from Beyer length math.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Deep closers (Free to Roam, Royally Blue trips) with very low EP rely on pace shape; middle-split pace figures can mislead if the field crawls early.

Maiden starts: Non-maiden optional claimer—start-count maiden rules do not apply.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: No maiden conditions in this spot.

Maiden jockey/trainer: Not a maiden-specific rider/trainer firster puzzle.

Maiden workouts: Work patterns inform Corbet’s Crush/Ratu Jawa readiness but not through maiden-debut lens.

Maiden firster policy: No first-time starters among keys.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: Field is older allowance mares—no 2yo firster pedigree tie-break needed.

Maiden step-forward: Step-forward angle centers Corbet’s Crush off sharp last and Ratu Jawa off allowance debut, not maiden counts.

Keep: 2 Thankfully | 4 Royally Blue | 1 Corbet's Crush | 5 Clay Soldier | 7 Ratu Jawa | 6 The Dove Rules

Toss: 3 Moretastic | 8 Free to Roam

Keep/toss rationale: Top four align with speed tier and pace roles; Ratu Jawa adds progression off an MSW win; The Dove Rules supplies class depth. Moretastic and Free to Roam are regressing on speed and form.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.