Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: ON

Pace scenario: Semi-soft / controlled speed

Class move score: 22

Distance change score: 00

Jockey change: Not flagged - No clearly material rider upgrades/downgrades noted in the paste; mostly regular book.

Age maturity: Mix of 3yos and a 4yo (Downtown Ro); the lone 4yo is more fully sprung but has been regressing on speed.

Trainer signal: Not enough reliable trainer stats in the excerpt to lean hard; Sweezey and D’Angelo angles are broadly fine but thin in-sample for some barns.

Layoff pattern: No major red flag - Top contenders read as active into 2026; no obvious 90+ day gaps driving a core negative among the short list.

Speed trend: Pearl of Pearl: big prior top with a useful recent 89 peak into this class drop; Downtown Ro: down off a 71 ceiling; Our Perfect Amanda: improving second start; Ignis Cor: route last soft but prior sprint numbers trending up.

Surface switch: Race may move to Tapeta if turf washes; most form is GP fast/AW-style prints—treat as compatible synthetic sprint rather than a harsh turf→dirt conversion.

Today's surface speeds: Pearl of Pearl 89 (5f); Our Perfect Amanda 85/79; Downtown Ro 54–57 recent after a 71 synth ceiling; Relentless Lady 57 on debut synth sprint.

Recent competitiveness: Pearl of Pearl was a nose/length second last sprint (denied); Our Perfect Amanda held third in first CLM try; Relentless Lady nearly wired on debut (second).

Winning form: Not flagged - No key pick arrives off a fresh win streak without layoff; Downtown Ro’s prior win is older and not current top form.

Speed tier: Top recent tier: Pearl of Pearl (89), Ignis Cor (88 turf sprint), I Love Ines/Our Perfect Amanda (86/85), then a gap to many others; Relentless Lady only 57 on debut but forward trip.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Relentless Lady (57 vs ~89 roof) stays live as a 2nd-start maiden with rail pace, bullet-style works, and dominant EP separation if the price allows.

Pace groups: Leader: Relentless Lady (PP wire/pace, EP 106). Stalker: Pearl of Pearl, Our Perfect Amanda, Downtown Ro, I Love Ines, Marz Eatoats (mixed but usually forward press/stalk). Mid-pack: Lady Lullaby (can flash speed but recent lines more midfield fade). Closer: Ignis Cor (belated closes; LP 97 fits), Deever Encounter ( habitually rear).

Pace pressure: Using 5 EP ≈ 1 length, Relentless Lady (~106) opens ~4+ lengths on the next forward EP cluster (~80–83) if she repeats her PP send; true second Leaders are scarce, so it’s more a pressured chase from Stalkers than a pure speed duel. Pearl (66 EP) still projects forward intent off PP—don’t shrink her into a passive trip based on EP alone.

Lone speed edge: FLAGGED EDGE

Post/trip risk: Inside #1 speed may need to send to avoid shuffles on a short run to the turn; outside closers may need lanes if RL gets loose; post 9 for Pearl asks a clean break to press without losing too much ground.

Outside speed choice: Not flagged

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: FLAGGED RISK

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Not the primary setup—there is an identified forward Leader; if RL regresses, favor high-LP stalkers (Ro, Pearl) over deep tractors in this 5f spot.

EP+LP insight: EP+LP aligns for RL (high EP/low LP Leader) and Ignis Cor (moderate EP/high LP Closer); stalkers cluster middling EP with workable LP; don’t replace Beyers with EP ranks.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: EP+LP is least binding for Deever-type deep settles and very green/sparse lines—middle pace is inferred, not measured.

Maiden starts: Pearl 4th start after MSW tries; Amanda 2nd start prime; Marz 9 deep maiden history (caution); Deever 0-for-5+ patterns poor.

Maiden improver: FLAGGED POSITIVE

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: FLAGGED CAUTION

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: Pearl of Pearl drops from MSW/upper mdns into this 35k maiden claimer—major intent/class relief versus prior foes.

Maiden jockey/trainer: Camacho on Pearl is a positive booking signal in context; several others are routine book without a standout switch named.

Maiden workouts: Our Perfect Amanda shows repeated GP bullets/maintenance; Relentless Lady has snappy short works; Pearl works are workable but not the main angle versus class/fig drop.

Maiden firster policy: No first-time starters in this field—no firster exceptions required.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: Not a 2yo-heavy maiden; purchase prices still hint Pearl brings the best paper class versus price.

Maiden step-forward: Shortlist Pearl (class + peak fig fit), Amanda (2nd start off a good board hit), Relentless Lady (pace progression); downgrade Marz (deep tries, tapering) and Deever (rear, low impact).

Keep: 9 Pearl of Pearl | 8 Our Perfect Amanda | 1 Relentless Lady | 6 Downtown Ro | 7 Ignis Cor | 4 I Love Ines

Toss: 2 Deever Encounter | 3 Marz Eatoats | 5 Lady Lullaby

Keep/toss rationale: Keep fig/class/pace clusters that can hit the 68 par and stalk a possible soft lead; toss chronic trailers and a deeply raced filly with fading top.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.