Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest contested / pace pressure

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 00

Jockey change: Not flagged - No clear upgrade/downgrade vs recent paired mounts in supplied lines.

Age maturity: Full 3yo filly field—similar maturity band with usual late spring progression still plausible for lightly raced types.

Trainer signal: No slam-dunk barn angles in text; Joseph/Sano/Orseno outfits are broadly credible without a standout shipping/claim signal here.

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - >90d dirt sprint caution applies to Miss T Bobo’s Dec→Mar gap, but today is a hopeful second-off progression after that winning return.

Speed trend: Winplaceandshow/Canton/Tosca clusters show prior highs with last-race stability or bounce markers; Caura’s recent trio trends softer (71→69→61-ish reads).

Surface switch: Today GP dirt aligns with most routing; Tosca’s latest was Churchill dirt—surface switch less meaningful than ship/class trip quality.

Today's surface speeds: GP dirt routes/sprints: Winplaceandshow 91-type recent dirt sprint peak; Authentic Wave owns a credible GP 7f OC dirt top (63 line cited); Miss T Bobo fresh GP 7f dirt MSW win (53).

Recent competitiveness: Several hit board lately (Winplaceandshow win; Tosca close second; Authentic Wave competitive Tam OC lines); Caura last ran evenly in tougher OC spot.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Winplaceandshow, Miss T Bobo, Don’t Do It Lucy, Coqueta Blue exit wins without a fresh long layoff into today (Bob still carries late layoff context overall).

Speed tier: Likely top recent-speed bucket: Winplaceandshow (91-type peak), Tosca/Authentic Wave (80s pockets), then Canton/Caura high-70s/low-70s pockets depending which line you trust.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Miss T Bobo sits below the top Beyers on paper but stays live as second-off-a-long-layoff GP 7f dirt winner with stalk-trip efficiency.

Pace groups: Leader: Canton (serial forward sends/fades), Winplaceandshow (duel/lead lines), Tosca (recent wire-ish progression), Coqueta Blue (speed duels in softer spots). Stalker: Authentic Wave, Don’t Do It Lucy, Miss T Bobo. Closer: Caura (PP regularly off pace + aligns with EP47/LP99). Mid-pack: sparse—some Tosca older lines more stalky but recent favors Leader. EP conflict: Canton EP109 vs last fade—still trust PP forward intent vs rivals.

Pace pressure: Canton (109 EP) vs Winplaceandshow (105 EP) ≈ one length early vs each other if both send; Tosca EP96 adds outside pressure ~2–3 lengths behind that pair early by the 5 EP≈1 length rule—maps to contested heat, not a solo lead.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Inside draws (Canton 2, Winplaceandshow 3) force/authors speed commitments; outside Tosca (listed 8) has tactical lane but wider break risk; large-post Authentic Wave may float forward from midpack unless redirected.

Outside speed choice: FLAGGED EDGE

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: Not flagged

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Speed is defined (multiple forward profiles)—if pace cooks, prioritize stalkers with LP/beyers (Authentic Wave; Miss T Bobo trip).

EP+LP insight: High EP / weaker LP duels (Canton, Winplaceandshow, Tosca) pair with Leader PP roles; Caura’s huge LP aligns with Closer PP—don’t use EP alone to shrink Canton’s forward willingness.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Deep closer/low EP types lose middle-race pace resolution—Caura EP+LP useful for finish only if pace melts.

Maiden starts: Not maiden—N/A beyond noting full allowance conditions.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: Non-maiden AOC—no MSW→Md Clm drop dynamics.

Maiden jockey/trainer: Non-maiden context; no debut-rate lever required here.

Maiden workouts: Works cited on several—general maintenance signals only without strong maiden-firster leverage.

Maiden firster policy: No first-time starters in this field per card listing.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: Not a 2yo-heavy maiden—pedigree proxy minimally operative.

Maiden step-forward: Non-maiden; improvement thesis framed via layoff progression (Bob) and pace-collapse stalk targets rather than maiden step-ups.

Keep: 8 Winplaceandshow | 7 Tosca | 6 Authentic Wave | 1 Miss T Bobo | 4 Don't Do It Lucy | 3 Canton

Toss: 2 Caura | 5 Coqueta Blue

Keep/toss rationale: Keep top recent-speed stalkers/leaders with GP/Tam OC substance; toss extreme closer needing meltdown plus claim-sharp speed stepping deeply (Coqueta Blue) unless pace chaos emerges.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.