Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest / Hot (dual speed)

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 00

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Ways and Means exits long layoff with Prat on her best races but Ortiz J L rides today—a meaningful partnership change versus her 111/102-pattern form.

Age maturity: Heavy 5yo-maire field with one 4yo (Usha), so seasoning tilts to Splendora, Ways and Means, and late-running experience more than youthful upside.

Trainer signal: Brown’s long-layoff dirt angle is emphasized for Ways and Means; Splendora is on a sharper Baffert 2026 pattern; Joseph runs both aggressive speeds (R Disaster and Haulin Ice).

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - >90-day negatives bite Usha (~6-month gap off La Brea), Ways and Means (~11-month gap off Bed of Roses), and Autumn Evening (~13-month sprint gap)—none are obviously in a favored 2nd/3rd-start-off-layoff slot today.

Speed trend: Splendora high/stable last three (100-96-97); Ways and Means spiked to 111 but figure is stale; Usha rebounds to career-top 99; Haulin Ice sliding (69 last); R Disaster steady mid-90s.

Surface switch: Today is fast dirt; Ways and Means’ last two Churchill runs were slop-track G1s, so translating her printed CD numbers needs a discount versus true fast-strip samples.

Today's surface speeds: Usha’s 99 and Splendora’s 97-area 7f fast dirt graded form anchor the credible fast-dirt tiers; Ways and Means’ 102 ties to slick CD slop.

Recent competitiveness: Splendora and Usha arrive off authoritative wins; R Disaster fought well in Madison (G1); Haulin Ice (faded stakes) and Autumn Evening (extended layoff/route form) lag recent boards.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Splendora (Beholder Mile) and Usha (La Brea) won last starts, but Ways and Means is not exiting a win despite prior top figures—layoffs temper the pure win-streak edge.

Speed tier: Recent Beyers isolate Ways and Means (111 peak; 102 CD slop), Splendora (100), Usha (99), and R Disaster (96)—Haulin Ice (69 last) and Autumn Evening (75) sit well off that cluster.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Autumn Evening (>5 pts light on last) stays a fringe scenario if sustained speed implodes early; barn off-long-layoff stat is cited in the form, though dirt-sprint freshness is still low confidence.

Pace groups: Leader/Speed: R Disaster, Haulin Ice (primary burners); Tracker/Stalker: Splendora, Ways and Means, adaptable Usha; Mid-pack/Closer: Autumn Evening stalking/back type off the pace collapse angle.

Pace pressure: R Disaster (EP 125/LP 58) and Haulin Ice (EP 117/LP 62) can force the issue; Splendora and Ways and Means boast higher LP to harvest a pressured leader duel.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Six runners limit pure traffic chaos; rail Usha forward enough to need a clean steer if outside speeds cross aggressively; widest R Disaster retains tactical send-or-track options.

Outside speed choice: FLAGGED EDGE

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: Not flagged

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Two confirmed pace drivers exist; contingency is inverted—if unexpectedly soft, LP-weak speeds could hang longer than modeled.

EP+LP insight: EP+LP composites favor Splendora and Ways and Means stalking heated fractions; brittle LP on the speed pair flags meltdown/leadeer vulnerability.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Autumn Evening is not an extreme turf-type closer on figures, but standard EP limits apply less if fractional meltdown verifies.

Maiden starts: N/A—graded stakes females with extensive pattern lines.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: N/A—no maiden placement axis applies.

Maiden jockey/trainer: N/A—experienced fields; no maiden-style rider intent read.

Maiden workouts: N/A—work tab used only as general readiness, not maiden workflow.

Maiden firster policy: N/A—no first-time starters.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: N/A—4yo+ stakes distaff heat.

Maiden step-forward: N/A.

Keep: 5 Splendora | 4 Ways and Means | 1 Usha | 6 R Disaster | 2 Haulin Ice

Toss: 3 Autumn Evening

Keep/toss rationale: Prioritize top speed tier plus tactical stalkers; cut the double long-layoff price who must improve double digits and still pass four elite dirt mares.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.