Race output

Churchill Downs · May 2, 2026 · Race 9

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest contested

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 00

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Stark Contrast: Prat up from Kimura—meaningful G1-turf upgrade; other mounts mostly neutral.

Age maturity: Uniform 3yo G1 field—upside vs ceiling varies by starts and prior top-level proof more than age alone.

Trainer signal: Several high-profile barns (Pletcher long layoff ship-in, Baffert, McCarthy, Casse, DeVaux) but no single barn angle overrides G1 form lines.

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - Final Score ~180+ day 3yo return is a default red flag; Greenwich Village ~60+ day layoff is softer on turf route. Second off long layoff positives do not apply to Final Score here (debuting off layoff).

Speed trend: Remember Mamba and Alpyland show stable-to-upward recent turf speed; Honey Dutch high ceiling but some late-race fade patterns; Street Beast strong prior figs with a rough last; Blackout Time (scratched) was flattening on dirt.

Surface switch: Black Hornet and Blackout Time (scratch) were dirt/synth last—Black Hornet’s G1 turf debut adds surface projection risk; Stark Contrast/Alpyland/Vasy/etc. aligned on turf.

Today's surface speeds: Likely tier anchored by multiple recent 82–111-style lines on turf routes from Transylvania-linked form (Mamba/Vasy/Honey Dutch/Stark Contrast) plus Alpyland/Greenwich Village stakes turf wins—use last three turf-route figs ahead of synth/dirt outliers.

Recent competitiveness: Alpyland, Greenwich Village (both won last turf), Stark Contrast (narrow G1 loss/no bad turf races), Honey Dutch relentlessly hitting the board in turf stakes, Remember Mamba perfect—several credible board profiles.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Remember Mamba, Alpyland, Greenwich Village enter off route-turf wins (no simultaneous >90-day layoff for those)—positive top-form anchors.

Speed tier: Top recent turf-performance cluster: Alpyland, Stark Contrast, Honey Dutch, Remember Mamba, Street Beast, Thousandsticks—with Prat/Stark near top of tactical ceiling; let last-start dirt meltdowns downgrade less than persistent turf tiers.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Black Hornet (62 Bey JR Stakes synthetic) looks >5 pts under on paper vs top turf figs—still mildly live via first G1 turf for Calumet, prior turf bullets, Walsh—needs step.

Pace groups: Leaders (PP): Honey Dutch, Street Beast (also led G3 tower), Thousandsticks (dual/press routes), Final Score (turf-wire profile). Stalkers: Stark Contrast, Alpyland, Black Hornet, Blinging It Back, Greenwich Village off heels (trust PP vs EP 105—still forward/mid-shiftable). Mid-pack: Steel Imperium. Closer: Remember Mamba, Let’s Be Frank; Vasy Transylvania rally reads Closer/off-pace though EP stays moderate-high (finish trust via LP/help). EP/LP largely aligns except Greenwich Village EP hot vs habitual tracking.

Pace pressure: Honey Dutch (110) vs Street Beast (113) ≈ 0.6 lengths by 5EP≈1L—true early duel risk; Thousandsticks (98) ~3 lengths behind that pair if everyone sends; Final Score (85) spacing ~5.6L to SB unless takes back early (PP says can control—still contributes early heat if sent). Stark Contrast/Stalker sits in the 89 EP band roughly 4–5L off the top brakes—classic pressured mile-and-a-sixteenth chase. Multiple PP-Leaders ⇒ not soft.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Final Score PP 14—outside pace compression with speed inside; Thousandsticks wide draw with forward profile risks extra ground; PP1 Street Beast favors ground-saving stalk/press; midfield closers need lane turning for home off honest tempo.

Outside speed choice: FLAGGED EDGE

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: FLAGGED RISK

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Speed is plentiful—if gate scratch chaos softens tempo, upgrade strong LP stalkers (Stark Contrast, Alpyland) and deep closers (Mamba) proportionally.

EP+LP insight: After PP: leaders carry big EP (HD/SB) with modest-to-lower LP for SB (63) versus HD (69)—suggests HD more sustain under heat; Mamba lower EP (77) + high LP (91) fits closer run pattern; Final Score high EP/low LP flags wire-or-fade risk at 8.5f. Apply 5EP≈1L only for early gaps; use ~2pts≈1L for Beyer-style separation separately.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Let’s Be Frank deep closer with very low EP—middle-missing pace fig makes EP+LP less decisive; same caution for late-rally Mamba if pace truly crawls (less likely here).

Maiden starts: N/A—this is a G1 route; field is seasoned with stakes profiles, not maiden cycle analysis.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: N/A—no maiden class ladder movement.

Maiden jockey/trainer: N/A—focus on graded placement and rider upgrades (Prat) instead of first-time barn stats.

Maiden workouts: Greenwich Village and Street Beast show strong maintenance patterns; Final Score steady PBD drills off long layoff—readiness plausible but race-squawk risk remains.

Maiden firster policy: No first-time starters in the G1 body; policy irrelevant.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: N/A—3yo stakes field, not a 2yo firster-heavy maiden.

Maiden step-forward: Step-forward hunt instead targets second-crop 3yo priors moving to 8.5f (e.g., Mamba, Alpyland) vs proven-top but vulnerable leaders (Honey Dutch fade history).

Keep: 12 Remember Mamba | 4 Stark Contrast | 7 Alpyland | 1 Street Beast | 9 Honey Dutch | 8 Greenwich Village | 13 Thousandsticks | 3 Blinging It Back

Toss: 2 Let's Be Frank | 11 Steel Imperium | 10 Vasy (Ire) | 6 Black Hornet | 14 Final Score

Keep/toss rationale: Scratched 5 excluded. Kept G1-relevant turf proof with top speed tiers or tactical stalk (Stark Contrast Prat, Mamba, Alpyland, Street Beast money earner, Honey Dutch pace presence, Baffert/GV upside, Thousandsticks forward class). Tossed extreme longshot maiden-today angle (Let’s Be Frank), synthetic-primary Steel Imperium first turf unknowns, Vasy Ortiz minus Prat ‘choice’ optics, turf-debut projecting Black Hornet under figs, Final Score outside draw + huge layoff + pace inside.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.

Top 4

  1. 12 Remember Mamba
  2. 4 Stark Contrast
  3. 7 Alpyland
  4. 9 Honey Dutch

Wagering

No wagering structure in this save (run a new analysis to populate betting fields).

Summary

Scratches exclude 5. Form/class/speed: Contested turf route par 92 favors entrants with repeating turf-route figures near the allowance/stakes ladder—Remember Mamba (Closer by PP rails rally, aligns EP77/LP91) and Stark Contrast (Stalker, near-miss G1 form, upgraded to Prat) sit on the short list; Alpyland (Stalker, never off turf board in six tries) joins the win tier. Pace map (PP-first): Leaders Honey Dutch & Street Beast (EP110–113 ⇒ ~0.6L early) threaten a pressured first turn (~5EP≈1L), aided by Thousandsticks/Final Score forward profiles—no lone-speed PP support, singleSpeed=false. Posts: rail can force sends from high EP (railSpeedPressure=true); outside Final Score/thousandsticks risk wide/trip traffic (outsideSpeedChoice partial for stalkers escaping pace). Layoff negatives center Final Score (>90d) despite works; GV layoff softer. Speed tier clusters ~Alpyland/Stark/Mamba/Honey Dutch/Street Beast; Black Hornet is appreciably lower on paper but mildly live crossing to first G1 turf. EP+LP is supportive after styles (avoid over-weighting GV EP105 vs PP stalk); deep closers still need pace authenticity—likely here—not from EP grids alone.