Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest / contested

Class move score: -1-1

Distance change score: 11

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Prat named on Portfolio Duration (GB) for her graded stakes debut after Camacho won the Tampa mile prep—reads as a barn ‘A’ rider alignment.

Age maturity: 4yo+ distaff route field is mostly peaked/cycling rather than maturing 3yo upside.

Trainer signal: Brown/Walsh/Casse/Mott are credible graded players, but only the Sweet Rebecca stable note flags a real negative (tough to settle early).

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - Temptable (GB) is ~97d+ off her last (1/25) into a G2 (>90d red flag by default; turf route is only somewhat lenient). Sweet Rebecca is a positive 2nd-barn progression angle off her return (two straight wins).

Speed trend: Classic Q is sharply rebounding (71→94 last three). Portfolio Duration trends up (69→85→87). Sweet Rebecca is stable-to-up in her last two vs a softer distant line.

Surface switch: Everyone is aligned to turf today; any prior dirt experimentation (ex. Maggie Go) is secondary.

Today's surface speeds: Classic Q has strong local-ish routes (CD turf G2 line ~92; GF Honey Fox 94). Portfolio just posted an 87 turf mile. Sweet Rebecca is an 86–88 turf miler on GP lately.

Recent competitiveness: Portfolio and Sweet Rebecca exit mile turf wins; Classic Q was a close third in a G3 mile prep after a troubled G2 line.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Portfolio Duration and Sweet Rebecca are last-race mile turf winners without a layoff—mandatory positive winning-form signal.

Speed tier: Likely top recent Beyer cluster: Classic Q 94, Sweet Rebecca 88/86, Portfolio Duration 87, plus Movin’ On Up’s prior 90s-class graded turf routes as a tier contender vs mid-80s types.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Maggie Go (~10–11pts under Classic Q’s latest) stays fringe-live only for pace meltdown/trip or Brown upside—not speed-parity. Vina Arana is live only for chaos/closer scripts.

Pace groups: Leader/Speed: Classic Q, Movin’ On Up. Tracker: Sweet Rebecca, Portfolio Duration (GB). Mid-pack: Maggie Go (Arg), Temptable (GB). Closer: Vina Arana (Ire).

Pace pressure: Multiple high-EP forwards (notably Movin’ On Up and Classic Q) should prevent a true solo control trip; survivors likely need enough LP to withstand pressure or stalk efficiently.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: After scratches (including outside Pin Up Betty), it’s a 7-runner mile: inside riders (Sweet Rebecca) can still face send-or-pin risk if Classic Q contests from mid-inside; outside closers need clear splits.

Outside speed choice: FLAGGED EDGE

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: Not flagged

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Not central—clear pace exists; if it unexpectedly softens, upgrade strong-LP trackers/stalkers (Portfolio, Sweet Rebecca) over pure closers.

EP+LP insight: High EP+LP composites favor stalk/press types (Sweet Rebecca, Movin’ On Up) and balanced kick (Portfolio’s 79/87 EP/LP) more than deep floater maps.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Deep closer Vina Arana (very low EP) makes EP+LP less decisive for mapping middle splits.

Maiden starts: Not a maiden; start-count framework only applies weakly as a maturity tie-breaker.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: N/A (stakes heat).

Maiden jockey/trainer: N/A (stakes heat).

Maiden workouts: N/A (stakes heat).

Maiden firster policy: N/A (stakes heat).

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: N/A (not a 2yo/firster-heavy maiden).

Maiden step-forward: N/A; emphasis stays on published speed + graded class proofs.

Keep: 5 Classic Q | 3 Portfolio Duration (GB) | 2 Sweet Rebecca | 7 Movin' On Up | 9 Maggie Go (Arg)

Toss: 4 Temptable (GB) | 6 Vina Arana (Ire)

Keep/toss rationale: Scratches 1 Italian Soiree and 8 Pin Up Betty excluded. Classic Q brings the top recent turf-route speed with CD relevance; Portfolio adds ascending figures plus Prat in a graded debut; Sweet Rebecca has class and winning form but fractiousness risk; Movin’ On Up maps for pace pressure with graded experience. Maggie Go is kept only as a longshot barn/trip branch under the speed-tier rule. Toss Vina Arana for class/trip meltdown dependence, and Temptable for >90d spacing into a sharply tougher American G2 spot off a one-race US sample.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.