Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest / contested

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 11

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Good Family upgrades to I. Ortiz (was Zayas); Rhythm Lady switches to Morales (was Hernandez)—mixed.

Age maturity: Uniform sophomore fillies; typical route maturing year with upside still plausible off light campaigns.

Trainer signal: Cox (1,5) and Walsh (7,10) bring strong turf-route barn signals; Maker (2) allowance turf stats solid; limited CD-specific reads on some shippers.

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - Several prime contenders carry ~180-day gaps (1,3,7,10 per barn tags)—more tolerable on turf route than dirt sprint; 2nd-off-layoff progressions still needed vs. fresh winners.

Speed trend: Rhythm Lady(101) and Call On Me(98) bring the strongest recent tops; Raiding Party(103) and Turner’s Charm(94) are high on ability but thinner/more interrupted sequences; Go to Girl drifted 89 last; Good Family up sharply last (77) after softer prior.

Surface switch: Most key tries already on turf routes; no big dirt→turf shock for the prime win contenders.

Today's surface speeds: Tier built from recent turf-route lines: 101 (2), 103 (7), 98 (9), 94 (10), 89 (12), 87 (1), 85 (11 if draws in).

Recent competitiveness: 2 Rhythm Lady was a close 2nd in a turf N1X; 9 Call On Me just wired a tough turf MSW; 5 Good Family cleared her last; several others come off minor placings or regressions (6,8,13).

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - 1,3,4,5,7,9 exit last-race wins (no additional layoff on the freshest winners); boosts 5/9 especially ahead of a class hike.

Speed tier: After the form screen, the primary win pool is ~2/9/7/10 on latest turf-route Beyers (101-98-103-94), with 1 (87) and 12 (89/95 ceiling) still credible after trip/class reads; sub-70 lines (6,8,13 last) largely fall out.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - 5 Good Family is >5 pts below the top trio on paper but is live for a forward trip/jock/trainer step with a dominant last win.

Pace groups: Leaders (PP): 3 Cooperation, 5 Good Family (early control in wins). Stalkers: 2 Rhythm Lady, 7 Raiding Party, 9 Call On Me, 1 Embrace Time (rally/stalk paths). Mid-pack: 6 Nelson’s Penny, 8 More Carats, 13 Callmeyourmajesty. Closers: 4 Cool American, 12 Go to Girl (late-rally patterns); 10 Turner’s Charm profiles closer to stalk/mid. EP/LP broadly aligns except potential late-send types still forward in PP.

Pace pressure: Cooperation EP101 vs Good Family EP99 is only ~0.4L early (÷5); add 2/9/7 forward EP bands (94/94/81) and this maps to pressure—not a soft single-speed getaway.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Posts not printed here; on a mile(+)-turf with a pressured route, outside draws for forward speed can avoid pocket traffic, while inside low-EP closers in a full field risk anchoring if they don’t secure early room.

Outside speed choice: Not flagged

Rail speed pressure: Not flagged

Rail low-EP traffic risk: FLAGGED RISK

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Speed is declared—favor the high-Beyer stalkers/ratings horses with tactical cover (2/9/7/10) over pure need-the-decline closers.

EP+LP insight: High-LP stalkers (9,5) and balanced types (2) fit the likely heat; Cooperation’s giant EP with low LP is the fade-risk leader on paper, while deep closers (4,12) need pace cooperation—EP+LP mainly supportive after PP styles are set.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Very low-EP deep closers (e.g., 4) can look worse on EP+LP composites when middle-race pace data are thin—still prioritize raw route speed ranks first.

Maiden starts: Non-maiden OC—maiden start-count angles are secondary; several entrants are now 2–6 starts deep off maiden breaks.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: N/A—today is an OC allowance optional, not a maiden-claiming drop setup.

Maiden jockey/trainer: N/A—non-maiden pace; top barns/riders matter but not FTI angles.

Maiden workouts: N/A—non-maiden.”

Maiden firster policy: N/A—no first-time starters in the main body.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: N/A—3yo turf route, not a 2yo-heavy maiden.

Maiden step-forward: N/A.

Keep: 2 Rhythm Lady | 9 Call On Me | 5 Good Family | 7 Raiding Party | 10 Turner's Charm | 1 Embrace Time | 12 Go to Girl | 3 Cooperation (Fr)

Toss: 8 More Carats | 4 Cool American | 6 Nelson's Penny | 13 Callmeyourmajesty

Keep/toss rationale: Keep the top recent turf-route speed tier plus forward-trip winners; toss slow/empty last lines (8), dirt-synth maidens without a turf peak (4), and Figure-poor/regressing tries (6,13) versus a deep 95–101 ceiling.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.