Race output

Churchill Downs · May 7, 2026 · Race 8

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest / multi-speed

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 00

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Upgrade/spot for Good Family: Ortiz I Jr rides off a sharp MSW route win (was Zayas last out); otherwise mostly returning riders on short runs.

Age maturity: Uniform 3-year-old filly field—no older-ruler edge; maturing sophomores, with lightly raced types having more unknown upside.

Trainer signal: Trainer tags mostly barn stats only; notable Barn A hotspots (Cox, Maker, Walsh) vs smaller-sample outfits—no fresh "intent" specials called from text.

Layoff pattern: RED FLAG - +180-day profiles for Embrace Time, Cooperation, Raiding Party, Turner's Charm and AE Soloist: lenient on turf route but still first-run-back risk; second start off layoff can be sharper for barns already winning the return.

Speed trend: Up arrows: Good Family (84→98) and Rhythm Lady (late tops including 101). Soft/declining: Nelson's Penny (92→67 on turf last), More Carats (87→58), and Soloist (tiered down off G2). Mixed: Call On Me dipped to 79 but won; Turner's Charm stable high-90s pair but stale.

Surface switch: Core contenders already have recent turf routes; Cool American/More Carats bring more synth/dirt back class; AE Go to Girl is a dirt-first resume trying turf again.

Today's surface speeds: Recent turf route highlights: Rhythm Lady 101 (Kee 1m), Good Family 98 (FG 1m), Turner's Charm 94/90 (Kee turf routes), Call On Me 79 win last out (Kee 1m), Raiding Party 79 debut win (Kee 1m), Nelson's Penny last turf AOC 67 vs prior turf MSW 92.

Recent competitiveness: Multiple last-out wins/closers: Good Family, Rhythm Lady, Cooperation, Embrace Time, Raiding Party, Call On Me; Nelson's Penny last was off-the-board (4th) in cutback AOC sprint.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Rhythm Lady, Good Family, Call On Me exit wins without 180-day layoffs—extra top-form signal per rules; layoff winners still show intent but need regression allowances.

Speed tier: Likely top turf speed cluster on recent figs: Rhythm Lady 101, Good Family 98, Call On Me 98 two back / 79 last win, Turner's Charm 94/90, Soloist 96 (G2 history) vs Nelson 92 two back.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Nelson's Penny (67 last vs ~101 top) and Turner's Charm (freshest 90s not last month) stay live off prior 90s form/second-off potential; Cooperation pure-speed LP fade angle at 8.5f.

Pace groups: Leader/Speed: Cooperation, Good Family, Rhythm Lady, plus AE Soloist pressure if drawn in. Tracker: Raiding Party, Nelson's Penny, Callmeyourmajesty (if runs). Mid-pack/versatile: Embrace Time, Turner's Charm, More Carats, Cool American. Closer: Call On Me; AE Go to Girl late-bias if she gets a trip.

Pace pressure: Not lone: several EP 94+ types—likely honest pressure early; best survivor profile often stalk-and-punch (Good Family/Rhythm Lady) or late run if it heats up (Call On Me); Cooperation's low LP is a stamina/fade watch at 1-1/16 turf.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: 10-horse body: inside Embrace Time is low-EP and can get shuffled/rail-locked; mid/high posts for Good Family/Rhythm Lady offer forward stalking lanes; wide tactical speed (e.g., Cooperation) needs a clean break on CD turf.

Outside speed choice: FLAGGED EDGE

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: FLAGGED RISK

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Pace map is not empty—prefer forwardly placed high-LP stalkers if leaders hook; closers need sustained pressure.

EP+LP insight: EP+LP composite supports stamina for Good Family (99/82) and Rhythm Lady (94/75); favors trackers versus Cooperation's extreme EP/high fade risk at route distance.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Call On Me and late-bias AE types: EP is middling/low—EP+LP is secondary to speed fig + pace meltdown setup.

Maiden starts: Not a maiden race (AOC/N1X); maiden start-count ladder not the primary decision frame.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: N/A—non-maiden allowance optional field.

Maiden jockey/trainer: N/A—evaluate standard rider class reads (Ortiz/Saez/Gaffalione tier) without firster intent stats.

Maiden workouts: N/A—use works only as general fitness (many show active tabs).

Maiden firster policy: No first-time starters in main body; AE policy irrelevant unless entered.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: N/A—3yo route AOC, not 2yo debut cluster.

Maiden step-forward: N/A—focus on allowance class rise and speed/pace tiers instead.

Keep: No explicit keep list.

Toss: No explicit toss list.

Keep/toss rationale: No keep/toss rationale provided.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.

Top 4

  1. 5 Good Family
  2. 2 Rhythm Lady
  3. 9 Call On Me
  4. 10 Turner's Charm

Wagering

No wagering structure in this save (run a new analysis to populate betting fields).

Summary

Pace groups: multiple Leader/Speed types (Cooperation/Good Family/Rhythm Lady, Soloist if AE) build an honest pace rather than lone speed—not a single-speed trigger. Stalk-and-punch profiles (Good Family, Rhythm Lady) map best to CD’s tactical turf mile; Call On Me is the Closer beneficiary if pressure holds. Post/trip: inside low-EP Embrace Time has rail-traffic risk; several forward runners avoid pure chaos pace. EP+LP favors the stalkers’ stamina over Cooperation’s route-fade shape, but keep speed-tier separate—Rhythm Lady 101 and Good Family 98 top today’s turf evidence, with Call On Me’s 79 last mitigated by a win and hotter pace project. Class is mixed MSW/AOC testing; +180-day layoff names need 2nd-start allowance though some already won returning. Jockey spot: Ortiz on Good Family is a meaningful upgrade angle. Speed trend positives concentrate on Good Family/Rhythm Lady; Nelson’s Penny is appreciably lower on last fig but live off prior 90s.