Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Lone-ish speed vs stalkers-closers

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 00

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Windrush exits Emisael Jaramillo for John Rios (change more than neutral; rest largely steady).

Age maturity: All entrants are older fillies/mares (4+); no juvenile upside edge—experience and current speed matter more than maturation jumps.

Trainer signal: Fawkes (Misprint) strong recent winning/placing angle; Coy (Stubold) low strike but fits claim play; Lopez Olmeda (Tator Made) cold recent form.

Layoff pattern: No major red flag - No key contender is coming off >90-day breaks; Drum Roll resumes off route tries but spacing is sprint-reasonable vs a full injury layoff.

Speed trend: Misprint last-three ~87-83-89 is mixed/down off peak 90s spikes; Stubold steady mid-80s; Any Moment 68-89-66 very volatile off one big fig; Windrush 88-82-89 more stable near the top tier.

Surface switch: Drum Roll is a proven GP Tapeta mare but arrives off back-to-back turf routes—must prove re-acceleration returning to synth sprint; Misprint/Windrush/Stubold lined up vs each other recently on synth.

Today's surface speeds: Synth-relevant spikes include Misprint 89-92-90 turf-to-synth mix at this trip class, Stubold 88 pace win and 91 stalking spike, Windrush 89 synth press-score, Brenna topped 89 once on synth but recent figs softer.

Recent competitiveness: Misprint exits a sharp handicap win hitting the board; Windrush paired strong runs with fading tries; Drum Roll turf route form is gritty but fewer recent sprint hits on Tapeta lately.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Misprint enters off a decisive last-out synthetic sprint win without a layoff (positive)—Stubold/A Moment also have sporadic wins but thinner current consistency.

Speed tier: Likely synth sprint top-tier pool is Misprint plus Windrush/Stubold peaks; Any Moment and Brenna flash high figs intermittently while R Firebird/Drum Roll/Tator Made look a cut below recent par on paper.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Drum Roll can be >>5 pts under Misprint sprint figs yet stay live as a classy Tapeta mare cutting back with high LP (74) stalk-and-punch upside if pace melts.

Pace groups: Misprint PP = Leader (repeated wires/duel leads on synth sprints); Stubold PP = habitual forward Leader/Stalker dueler pressed and led lanes; Windrush oscillates PP press/lead ⇒ Stalker/Leader-lite; Any Moment/Brenna = Stalker; R Firebird = Mid-pack; Drum Roll turf routes show Leader work but sprint history here is thinner ⇒ Stalker leaning; EP aligns for Misprint/Stubold high-EP forward types while Brenna’s low EP clashes with sporadic pace tries (trust PP tactical send risk).

Pace pressure: Misprint EP 88 (~19 pts over R Firebird EP77) ⇒ ~4L early cushion vs deepest drop-backs among forwards; Stubold EP91 versus Misprint EP88 ≈ duel within ~0.6L but Stubold PP is often press/stalk vs pure solo lead—Misprint remains the habitual wire threat; lone-speed edge is plausible if Stubold stalks leaving Misprint uncontested forward.

Lone speed edge: FLAGGED EDGE

Post/trip risk: Misprint draws inside speed (rail 6) versus outside draws for Windrush 7/Windrush path issues prior—inside forward types must break clean; mids can float 3-wide into the turn when EP stacks; no huge field (>8) so rail-pin is moderate not extreme.

Outside speed choice: Not flagged

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: FLAGGED RISK

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - If Misprint stubs, Stubold/Windrush have enough EP/LP hybrid to inherit forward spots—prefer strong LP stalkers over deep closers.

EP+LP insight: Misprint Leader + strong EP/high sprint LP51 still fits pressured leader survivor; Drum Roll high LP74 supports closer/stalker efficiency after turf routes; Brenna Leader-ish tries with EP59 ⇒ classic conflict—still forward if sent.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: True closers scarce; EP/LP mostly informative for forwards—deep drop-backs rarely match Tapeta sprint flow here.

Maiden starts: Non-maiden claiming—start-count maiden rules minimally apply beyond experience baselines; no debut angle.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: N/A claiming heat—no maiden class stair-step story.

Maiden jockey/trainer: No maiden F/T firster emphasis; rider switches minor except Windrush swap.

Maiden workouts: Misprint drills solid maintenance; Drum Roll workouts fine but route-heavy context.

Maiden firster policy: Firsters irrelevant in this NW field.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: No 2yo maiden population—pedigree proxies not operative.

Maiden step-forward: Progression lens favors Misprint crisp last vs mixed fields; downgrade Tator Made until proof at $10kTapeta sprint.

Keep: 6 Misprint | 8 Stubold | 7 Windrush | 2 Any Moment

Toss: 3 Tator Made | 5 Brenna | 1 R Firebird | 4 Drum Roll

Keep/toss rationale: Misprint lone legit Leader-speed on Tapeta wiring danger; Stubold/Windrush are best stalk-press combos with peak figs nearby; Any Moment is volatile speed back class; Toss Tator recent non-efforts, Brenna unreliable forward EP vs sporadic kicks, Firebird regressing sprint figs, Drum Roll classy but route-to-synth cutback ambiguity.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.