Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest / pressured

Class move score: 11

Distance change score: 11

Jockey change: FLAGGED - Prat on #3 Silent Way is an upgrade from Berrios; Gaffalione on #5 Get Them Roses fits CD shipping; Irad sticks to #11 Powershift after Hernandez last out—mostly neutral top-tier swaps.

Age maturity: Route-heavy field blends progressive 3yos with 4yo types (Silent Way, Cromwell) entering common peak/improvement windows.

Trainer signal: Pletcher/Powershift is the clearest high-percentage placement signal in the text; other barns lack standout debut or ship stats beyond routine routes.

Layoff pattern: No major red flag - >90d not a decisive knock on the main win candidates; #7 Time to Strike offers a classic second-off-long-layoff progression angle off the April return.

Speed trend: Stakeholder and Silent Way show improving/stable recent dirt-route Beyers; Powershift dipped in the G3 after huge prior numbers; Cromwell steady low-80s; Get Them Roses climbing from high-50s to 70.

Surface switch: Several exit GP/FG/SA/TAM dirt for CD today—translation risk unless backed by CD works or prior CD lines (Cromwell strongest local evidence).

Today's surface speeds: Cromwell owns credible CD dirt mile routes including a prior graduate-style victory line; other top Beyers (93/92) were earned off-CD.

Recent competitiveness: Cromwell was second last out; Powershift was third in a G3 try; Bourbon Dream debuted a good second; Stakeholder has multiple board finishes at big KY circuits.

Winning form: Not flagged - No runner enters off a fresh win without a layoff narrative; Cromwell’s CD win is useful but not last-race form.

Speed tier: Recent top dirt-route cluster: Stakeholder ~93, Silent Way ~92, Powershift (ceiling 96–110, last 78), Cromwell ~81, Bourbon Dream ~78 debut.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Time to Strike sits >5 below on published tops but is second start off a long break; Bourbon Dream is eligible for a maiden second-start jump despite a softer debut figure.

Pace groups: Leader/Speed: Silent Way, Powershift, Bourbon Dream; Tracker: Stakeholder, Cromwell, Get Them Roses; Mid-Pack: Ingleborough; Closer: Time to Strike.

Pace pressure: Triple-digit EP types should duel honestly; survivors likely combine tactical cover with stout LP (Powershift/Cromwell/Stakeholder) rather than a free lone leader.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Eight-horse field moderates rail chaos, but inside speed could get engaged early while outside speed must secure position into the first turn on the mile-and-sixteenth.

Outside speed choice: Not flagged

Rail speed pressure: Not flagged

Rail low-EP traffic risk: Not flagged

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Plenty of declared speed; emphasize trip and LP more than pure pace chaos.

EP+LP insight: Powershift’s balanced EP+LP and Cromwell’s high late pace support sustained efforts around two turns; Get Them Roses is a softer EP forward type with a useful late kick.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: Time to Strike’s late-leaning profile with modest LP makes EP+LP less decisive—need volatile pace to amplify.

Maiden starts: Prime window: #8 Bourbon Dream (2nd start), #11 Powershift (2nd start); caution flag on #6 Cromwell with seven maiden tries; #4 Ingleborough debut-only.

Maiden improver: FLAGGED POSITIVE

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: FLAGGED CAUTION

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: Powershift exits a G3-type maiden spot into $120k MSW—material negative class relief versus that stakes heat.

Maiden jockey/trainer: Pletcher/Irad on Powershift is elite intent for a lightly raced maiden; other connections are less definitive from the excerpt alone.

Maiden workouts: Bullet/steady works show for Powershift, Bourbon Dream, and CD-pattern works for local shippers—generally positive readiness mosaic.

Maiden firster policy: First-time starter #10 scratched; policy favors proven routing form in this trimmed field.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: Not a 2yo-heavy firster race after scratches; spend/pedigree still frames Powershift/Bourbon Dream as upper-market types.

Maiden step-forward: Shortlist second-start jumps for Bourbon Dream and Powershift; downgrade Ingleborough off a one-paced debut and marginalize pure-fig laggards unless progression clicks.

Keep: 11 Powershift | 3 Silent Way | 2 Stakeholder | 6 Cromwell | 8 Bourbon Dream | 7 Time to Strike | 5 Get Them Roses

Toss: 4 Ingleborough

Keep/toss rationale: Scratches 1,9,10 removed; Ingleborough’s flat debut and slow number are poorest versus par 85; remaining runners have clearer speed ceilings or defined progression angles.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.