Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest / mild pressure

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 00

Jockey change: Not flagged - Neutral/unclear from the PP excerpt—no definitive today-vs-last mount table was provided.

Age maturity: 3yo-only edge is muted here; lone 3yo Corbet's Crush brings synthetic speed upside but lacks a turf résumé versus older rivals.

Trainer signal: No standout trainer angle was detectable from the parsed text beyond routine barn representation.

Layoff pattern: No major red flag - >90-day negatives not central among the main contenders; Ratu Jawa has a messy route line on the chart but comes off a recent winning sprint turn.

Speed trend: Thankfully and Royally Blue sit on the best recent numbers; Clay Soldier is stable-to-up in the high-80s/low-90s neighborhood; Free to Roam and Moretastic trend down on published figs.

Surface switch: Primary condition is GP turf (Tapeta backup); several veterans have local turf lines while Corbet's Crush and Ratu Jawa are largely synth-driven on the page.

Today's surface speeds: Thankfully has GP turf 5f lines including 93/89-type efforts; Royally Blue has multiple GP turf sprint figs in the low-to-mid-90s; Clay Soldier and The Dove Rules have credible GP turf tries in the high-80s/low-90s historically.

Recent competitiveness: Royally Blue and Thankfully were competitive last out (Royally Blue won that heat); Ratu Jawa exits a win; several others are finishing non-threateningly on recent figs.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Royally Blue, Thankfully, and Ratu Jawa exit wins without an obvious long layoff between that form and this spot.

Speed tier: Likely top recent tier is Thankfully and Royally Blue (low-90s neighborhood on relevant surfaces), with Clay Soldier and Corbet's Crush the next cut on published numbers.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Clay Soldier is a few points under the top pair on paper but stays live via trip progression and forward placement; Corbet's Crush is below the top turf figs on paper but is live if she transfers synthetic speed.

Pace groups: Thankfully: Leader/Stalker by repeated forward running lines (press/duel/stalk patterns) with EP 91 aligning. Corbet's Crush: Stalker (synth PPs; forward when right) with EP 85 broadly aligning. Clay Soldier: Stalker (can duel/press) with EP 78. Moretastic/The Dove Rules/Free to Roam: Mid-pack. Royally Blue and Ratu Jawa: Closer by habitual late-rally lines; EP 65/59 align (low early, higher late on Ratu Jawa).

Pace pressure: Using 5 EP≈1 length for forward runners, Thankfully should be roughly a bit more than a length ahead of Corbet's Crush early (91 vs 85), with Clay Soldier a few lengths farther back—enough pace to avoid a pure solo steal, but not a guaranteed suicide duel absent a second habitual Leader pressing.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Eight-runner body; rail #1 speed can be pressured to respond early; stalkers sitting just off Thankfully can secure a stalk-and-punch path; deep closers need a clear lane off a legit early tempo.

Outside speed choice: Not flagged

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: Not flagged

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - If early tempo unexpectedly softens, lean to high-LP profiles that can still finish (Royally Blue type) while downgrading horses that need forced pace.

EP+LP insight: After PP labeling, EP/LP mostly fits: Thankfully high-EP stalk/press; closers low EP with better LP (Royally Blue/Ratu Jawa). Do not demote habitual forward runners off late-pace reads alone—keep trip role tied to running lines first.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: EP+LP is less trustworthy for deep closers with very low EP (Ratu Jawa) because middle-race pace context is thin—use as support, not a speed substitute.

Maiden starts: Not a maiden—allowance optional claiming.

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: Not applicable (non-maiden).

Maiden jockey/trainer: Not applicable (non-maiden).

Maiden workouts: Not applicable (non-maiden).

Maiden firster policy: Not applicable (non-maiden).

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: Not applicable (non-maiden).

Maiden step-forward: Not applicable (non-maiden).

Keep: 2 Thankfully | 4 Royally Blue | 5 Clay Soldier | 1 Corbet's Crush | 6 The Dove Rules | 7 Ratu Jawa

Toss: 3 Moretastic | 8 Free to Roam

Keep/toss rationale: Kept the top speed-tier and GP-relevant trips; Clay Soldier and Corbet's Crush are structural underneath players; marginal keep on The Dove Rules and Ratu Jawa for exotics depth; tossed figure-faders and the most dubious current form/class-speed combo (Moretastic/Free to Roam).

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.