Race output

Model version: v1.1

Source: Cursor

Single-speed trigger: OFF

Pace scenario: Honest contested (dual forward pressure)

Class move score: 00

Distance change score: 11

Jockey change: Not flagged - No clear upgrade/downgrade called out from the provided PP text; treat as neutral unless barn posts a rider switch.

Age maturity: Full 3-year-old filly field—maturing but broadly similar physical upside vs older runners isn’t a separator here.

Trainer signal: Joseph (Canton) and Orseno (WPS) give barn-quality anchors; no sharp claim/placement signal is explicit in the excerpt.

Layoff pattern: No major red flag - No obvious >90-day bridge-to-today negatives on the contenders excerpted for this spot; several are recently active or on short cycles.

Speed trend: Winplaceandshow spiked top last; Authentic Wave shows a usable recent high around 82–84 with some give in the last pair; Tosca is coming off a winning/top figure cycle; Canton looks regressive off the last pair; Coqueta Blue is declining off peaks.

Surface switch: Today is GP dirt; most key PPs are fast dirt at GP/Tam with a few off-events—no major turf-to-dirt pivot among the main win contenders.

Today's surface speeds: Authentic Wave has strong recent dirt numbers (including an ~84-type top); Winplaceandshow just fired a career-top dirt sprint win; Tosca’s latest dirt win came with a solid figure on form.

Recent competitiveness: Multiple last-race winners (WPS, Tosca, Miss T Bobo, Don’t Do It Lucy) and Authentic Wave has been hitting the board in heated allowance/OC heats.

Winning form: FLAGGED POSITIVE - Winplaceandshow, Tosca, Miss T Bobo, Don’t Do It Lucy, and Coqueta Blue arrive off wins (non-layoff context in the excerpt)—extra positive unless a return race was a failed comeback (not flagged here).

Speed tier: Likely top recent dirt tier centers on Winplaceandshow (spike top), Authentic Wave (repeatable highs), and Tosca (fresh winning figure); Miss T Bobo is a clear ‘needs to step up numerically’ type off the maiden frame even though she’s forward-moving.

Lower-but-live override: FLAGGED LIVE - Miss T Bobo and Don’t Do It Lucy can be >5 points under the top pair on paper but stay live via last-out wins/progression (especially Bobo stretching winning GP dirt form into N1X).

Pace groups: Leaders (PP-first): Canton (wirings/tried lead, faded last), Winplaceandshow (duel/lead tactics), Coqueta Blue (repeated pace/duel lines), Tosca (can own/share the front on best runs). Stalkers: Authentic Wave (consistent stalk/chase lines), Miss T Bobo (2–3w stalk), Don’t Do It Lucy (mid-pack rally last). Mid-pack mix: occasional Canton setups aside from pure send. Closer: Caura (habitually drops in/situates off the pace; huge LP). EP aligns for forward types (Canton/WPS/Tosca high EP) and fits Caura as low-EP closer.

Pace pressure: Using 5 EP ≈ 1 early length, Canton (109) and Winplaceandshow (105) land within ~0.8 lengths at the first gradient—credible speed duel/soften scenario with Tosca/Coqueta (+pressure) forward enough to keep it honest; Authentic Wave and Bobo should sit just off that melée rather than getting a lone-speed picnic.

Lone speed edge: Not flagged

Post/trip risk: Posts aren’t fully enumerated in the excerpt; with multiple forward EP profiles, outside draws can float wide into the turn while inside forwards may need to send/clear to avoid getting swarmed—verify the actual post draw before locking trip maps.

Outside speed choice: FLAGGED EDGE

Rail speed pressure: FLAGGED RISK

Rail low-EP traffic risk: Not flagged

No-speed chaos: Not flagged - Not a no-speed race; if the front cancels unexpectedly, prioritize high-LP stalkers (Authentic Wave) over deep closers at 7f.

EP+LP insight: After PP labels, EP+LP clusters WPS/Canton/Tosca as early-volatile but late-fallible profiles versus Authentic Wave’s lower EP/higher LP stalker shape; Caura’s EP is unreliable for separation math (deep closer), but LP supports rally dependency.

EP+LP stamina edge: FLAGGED EDGE

EP+LP closer caveat: EP+LP is most trustworthy for Leader/Stalker/Mid-pack separation; deep closer Caura with very low EP shouldn’t be positioned off EP gaps alone at 7f.

Maiden starts: Not applicable—today is an allowance optional claiming heat (non-maiden).

Maiden improver: Not flagged

Maiden debut caution: Not flagged

Maiden over-raced caution: Not flagged

Maiden EP/LP ignored: NO

Maiden class drop: Not a maiden race; no MSW→MCL drop angle applies today.

Maiden jockey/trainer: Not a maiden race.

Maiden workouts: Not a maiden race.

Maiden firster policy: Not a maiden race; no firster elimination policy invoked.

Maiden firster exception: Not flagged

2yo pedigree proxy: Not a 2yo-heavy maiden field per the race conditions.

Maiden step-forward: Not a maiden race.

Keep: 8 Winplaceandshow | 6 Authentic Wave | 7 Tosca | 1 Miss T Bobo | 3 Canton | 4 Don't Do It Lucy

Toss: 5 Coqueta Blue | 2 Caura

Keep/toss rationale: Keep the top trio-plus: WPS (peak fig + forward fit), Authentic Wave (repeatable class + stalk trip), Tosca (pace-competitive), Bobo (winning progression), plus Canton (pure speed for exotics). Toss Coqueta off last regression into a tougher spot and Caura as a 7f dirt closer needing a true pace collapse.

Score legend: +2 strong edge, +1 minor edge, 0 neutral/mixed, -1 minor concern, -2 major concern.