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Thursday, August 13, 2026 — consumer-facing layout. Re-publish from Validation updates one race in place.
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Saratoga · 2026-08-13 · Race 1 · Turf · 5.5f · (:59©)ÐçMd Sp Wt 100k · Beyer par 71
Pick # Horse Odds Jockey Trainer Top pick 4 Daylight Dreamer 9-2 CARMOUCHE K Englehart Jeremiah C Clear edgeSecond 3 Combat Move 3-1 ORTIZ J L Rice Linda Moderate edgeThird 6 Aperitif 5-2 ORTIZ I JR Merryman Elizabeth M Moderate edgeFourth 5 My Lil Army Girl 4-1 FRANCO M De Paz Horacio Separation: 1 vs 2 Clear edge · 2 vs 3 Moderate edge · 3 vs 4 Moderate edge
Why they separate
#6 Aperitif gets a clear edge over #4 Daylight Dreamer because the 70/64 turf last-two and Irad booking top the field usable band while Daylight’s last turf flop is excused only by the prior 66. #4 Daylight Dreamer has the nod over #5 My Lil Army Girl because proven Md75k turf speed and the lighter 0-for-3 resume beat an 0-for-8 Leader whose turf places are underneath-only. #5 My Lil Army Girl is preferred over #3 Combat Move for the exacta-completer slot — repeated turf board hits (58/68) and a forward trip beat a synth-only closer on first turf despite Ortiz/Rice.
Daylight Dreamer leads the card, with Combat Move, Aperitif, and My Lil Army Girl the next best options. Daylight Dreamer earns the top spot — should finish strongly from off the pace. Combat Move is the main alternative — the 70/64 turf last-two and Irad booking top the field usable band while Daylight’s last turf flop is excused only by the prior 66.
Saratoga · 2026-08-13 · Race 2 · Dirt · 6f · Md 85000 · Beyer par NA
Pick # Horse Odds Jockey Trainer Top pick 5 The Standard 2-1 ORTIZ J L Asmussen Steven M Moderate edgeSecond 2 Mo the Merrier 9-5 ORTIZ I JR McPeek Kenneth G Very closeThird 6 Onepac 4-1 ZAYAS E J Terranova John P II Separation: 1 vs 2 Moderate edge · 2 vs 3 Very close
Why they separate
#5 The Standard gets the nod over #2 Mo the Merrier because the 80 Beyer Sar second and Md100k proof sit ~4 adjusted points clear of Mo's MSW 76/75 drop — not a layup with Irad on the MSW→MCL spot. #2 Mo the Merrier is very close to #3 Onepac — either could run second behind Standard on the class drop versus restored 77/71 Md form off the bench. No fourth pick — Grand Gesture blinkers angle lacks board speed within ~5 pts of Onepac.
The Standard leads the card, followed by Mo the Merrier and Onepac. The Standard earns the top spot — should get a favorable trip. Mo the Merrier is the main alternative — the 80 Beyer Sar second and Md100k proof sit ~4 adjusted points clear of Mo's MSW 76/75 drop — not a layup with Irad on the MSW→MCL spot.
Saratoga · 2026-08-13 · Race 3 · Dirt · 8f · ÐçAlw 40000s · Beyer par NA
Pick # Horse Odds Jockey Trainer Top pick 1 Lady Wisdom 7-5 SANTANA R JR Kantarmaci Mertkan Moderate edgeSecond 5 Timia 5-2 CASTELLANO J J Potts Wayne Moderate edgeThird 3 Island Charm 8-1 FRANCO M Kantarmaci Ilkay Moderate edgeFourth 4 Babcie 4-1 ALVARADO J Giddings Melanie Separation: 1 vs 2 Moderate edge · 2 vs 3 Moderate edge · 3 vs 4 Moderate edge
Why they separate
#1 Lady Wisdom gets the nod over #5 Timia because the SAR Alw40k mile 72 beats Timia's usable 65-69 band with same-distance home form, though Castellano and Timia's 69 BAQ mile keep it close. #5 Timia has the edge over #2 Our Preferred Pal because the 69-mile anchor and Tier-1 stalker proof outrank OPP's 63-with-fold last and weaker 57 mile. #2 Our Preferred Pal sits ahead of #4 Babcie as the better exacta completer with same-tag Alw40k tries versus Babcie's maiden-to-Alw stretch with no mile proof. #3 and #4 are exacta completers behind the stalker keys, not third win threats.
Lady Wisdom leads the card, with Timia, Island Charm, and Babcie the next best options. Lady Wisdom earns the top spot — should lead the field. Timia is the main alternative — the SAR Alw40k mile 72 beats Timia's usable 65-69 band with same-distance home form, though Castellano and Timia's 69 BAQ mile keep it close.
Saratoga · 2026-08-13 · Race 4 · Turf · 9.5f · OC 55k/N1X · Beyer par 85
Pick # Horse Odds Jockey Trainer Top pick 2 Make You Mine (Ire) 3-1 GAFFALIONE T Brown Chad C Moderate edgeSecond 5 Tulip 5-2 ALVARADO J Walden William Moderate edgeThird 1 Majaz (GB) 2-1 ORTIZ I JR Casse Mark Moderate edgeFourth 4 Midnight Concerto 7-2 ORTIZ J L McPeek Kenneth G Separation: 1 vs 2 Moderate edge · 2 vs 3 Moderate edge · 3 vs 4 Moderate edge
Why they separate
#1 Majaz gets the nod over #5 Tulip because adjusted usable ~88–90 tops the field and Irad/Casse 2-1 favorite flip in OC band, though Tulip’s forward map keeps her co-key live. #5 Tulip has the edge over #4 Midnight Concerto on pace-style win ranking — Leader/Stalker ahead of Closer under honest soft — even though Midnight’s 81 same-tag OC 55k proof is stronger on figures alone. #4 Midnight Concerto is preferred over #6 Trail of Gold because same-tag Sar OC 55k 3rd at today’s 1⅜ beats Trail’s 4th/2nd at similar tags by usable speed. #3 and #4 are exacta completers behind the forward keys, not third/fourth win horses.
Make You Mine (Ire) leads the card, with Tulip, Majaz (GB), and Midnight Concerto the next best options. Tulip is the main alternative — Make You Mine (Ire) has the nod, but Tulip is live if the favorite falters, and should get a favorable trip.
Saratoga · 2026-08-13 · Race 5 · Dirt · 6f · Clm 20000N3L · Beyer par NA
Pick # Horse Odds Jockey Trainer Top pick 8 Mascara 3-1 ORTIZ I JR Diodoro Robertino Moderate edgeSecond 3 Vekomancer 2-1 FRANCO M Rice Linda Moderate edgeThird 9 Cloudy Chance 6-1 LEZCANO J Englehart Chris Very closeFourth 6 Scarlet's Dream 10-1 ELLIOTT C Brion Keri Separation: 1 vs 2 Moderate edge · 2 vs 3 Moderate edge · 3 vs 4 Very close
Why they separate
#8 Mascara gets the nod over #9 Cloudy Chance because Irad aboard plus Tier-1 dirt Clm20k press figures (62–67) beat Cloudy's restored 59–62 band in a contested sprint where stalkers inherit — not a layup with Cloudy's EP edge. #9 Cloudy Chance has the edge over #4 Spun Size on class-drop ceiling (85 Alw wire) versus Spun's 64 FL last, though Spun's Leader role keeps it close. #4 Spun Size and #6 Scarlet's Dream are very close for the exacta saver slot — Spun's forward 2nd-last profile edges Scarlet's win-last Clm wire when pairing with the stalker keys.
Mascara leads the card, with Vekomancer, Cloudy Chance, and Scarlet's Dream the next best options. Mascara earns the top spot — should get a favorable trip. Vekomancer is the main alternative — Mascara has the nod, but Vekomancer is live if the favorite falters.
Saratoga · 2026-08-13 · Race 6 · Turf · 8f · OC 110k/C · Beyer par NA
Pick # Horse Odds Jockey Trainer Top pick 1 Fionn 6-5 ORTIZ I JR Cox Brad H Moderate edgeSecond 3 Table Flirt 3-1 ALVARADO J Mott William I Moderate edgeThird 2 Shotgun Wedding 7-2 ORTIZ J L Casse Mark Very closeFourth 4 Ready to Jam 8-1 FRANCO M Cox Brad H Separation: 1 vs 2 Moderate edge · 2 vs 3 Moderate edge · 3 vs 4 Very close
Why they separate
#3 Table Flirt gets the nod over #1 Fionn because Sar inner-turf mile 90 (traffic excused) is same-tag proof Fionn lacks on this drop — not a layup with graded 87 anchor. #1 Fionn has the edge over #7 Anna's Promise on class-adjusted turf graded band 85–87 vs 82–84 and rebound off empty G3 fav, though Saez 1-1 keeps it close. #7 Anna's Promise is very close to #4 Ready to Jam — either could complete exotics if #6 folds; #7 preferred on short-favorite floor and EP 107 press vs #4 pure sprint stretch. #3–#4 are exacta completers beneath the co-keys, not third/fourth win threats.
Fionn leads the card, with Table Flirt, Shotgun Wedding, and Ready to Jam the next best options. Table Flirt is the main alternative — Fionn has the nod, but Table Flirt is live if the favorite falters.
Saratoga · 2026-08-13 · Race 7 · Turf · 5.5f · (:59©)çOC 80k/N2X · Beyer par 87
Pick # Horse Odds Jockey Trainer Top pick 6 Shoot It True 1-1 ORTIZ I JR Ward Wesley A Moderate edgeSecond 4 Quiet Confidence 5-1 ELLIOTT C Ryerson James T Moderate edgeThird 3 Highway Harmony 5-2 ZAYAS E J Green Amelia J Very closeFourth 1 Abientot 6-1 DAVIS D Casse Mark Separation: 1 vs 2 Moderate edge · 2 vs 3 Moderate edge · 3 vs 4 Very close
Why they separate
#6 Shoot It True gets the nod over #4 Quiet Confidence because G2-adjusted 95-96 Beyers and Irad on the public favorite clear the same-tag 87 Leader in a stalker-favored contested map — not a layup if #4 controls the duel. #4 Quiet Confidence has the edge over #1 Abientot because same-race win-path Leader beat Abientot while posting par-level 87 versus Abientot's 83 board stalk. #1 Abientot is very close to #3 Highway Harmony — Abientot's same-distance Sar turf board hits (Dst 6-1-1-3) outrank #3's bounce-spike 98 on adjusted usable speed for the completer slot, though #3's won-last form keeps her underneath on tickets. #3 and #4 are exacta completers behind the stalker/Leader keys, not third/fourth best raw win horses.
Shoot It True leads the card, with Quiet Confidence, Highway Harmony, and Abientot the next best options. Shoot It True earns the top spot — should get a favorable trip. Quiet Confidence is the main alternative — G2-adjusted 95-96 Beyers and Irad on the public favorite clear the same-tag 87 Leader in a stalker-favored contested map — not a layup if Quiet Confidence controls the duel.
Saratoga · 2026-08-13 · Race 8 · Dirt · 14f · BirdstoneL200kTHE BIRDSTONE · Beyer par 100
Pick # Horse Odds Jockey Trainer Top pick 1 Parchment Party 8-5 VELAZQUEZ J R Mott William I Moderate edgeSecond 3 Stars and Stripes 5-2 SAEZ L Mott William I Very closeThird 7 Jokestar 4-1 ORTIZ J L Attard Kevin Moderate edgeFourth 2 Annexperience 10-1 CARMOUCHE K Englehart Jeremiah C Separation: 1 vs 2 Moderate edge · 2 vs 3 Very close · 3 vs 4 Moderate edge
Why they separate
#6 Interceptor gets the nod over #1 Parchment Party because Excelsior 97 and forward route stalking fit this 14f dirt map better than PP's Suburban-closer last with Gate-1 fail, though PP's Birdstone 98 and Dst(349) 2-2-0 keep it close. #1 Parchment Party is very close to #3 Stars and Stripes — either could run second if Saez stalks the lone speed and PP rallies, with PP's same-race Birdstone edge vs S&S's shared 84 Suburban flop. #3 Stars and Stripes has the nod over #7 Jokestar for #3 because G3 96 dirt proof and EP+LP 189 outrank Jokestar's 5yo rebound slot, though Jokestar's OP 94 marathon place behind PP is a live exacta completer. #3 and #4 are exacta partners behind the #6/#1 keys, not third/fourth win threats.
Parchment Party leads the card, with Stars and Stripes, Jokestar, and Annexperience the next best options. Stars and Stripes is the main alternative — Excelsior 97 and forward route stalking fit this 14f dirt map better than PP's Suburban-closer last with Gate-Parchment Party fail, though PP's Birdstone 98 and Dst(349) 2-2-0 keep it close.
Saratoga · 2026-08-13 · Race 9 · Dirt · 6f · Md Sp Wt 115k · Beyer par 92
Pick # Horse Odds Jockey Trainer Top pick 2 Criteria 5-2 ORTIZ I JR Brown Chad C Moderate edgeSecond 5 Dark Force 12-1 VELAZQUEZ J R Weaver George Moderate edgeThird 4 Royal Enclosure 8-1 RODRIGUEZ J Abreu Jorge R Very closeFourth 9 Complex Charlie 7-2 CASTELLANO J J Martin Carlos F Separation: 1 vs 2 Moderate edge · 2 vs 3 Moderate edge · 3 vs 4 Very close
Why they separate
#2 Criteria gets the nod over #9 Complex Charlie because same-tag Md115k 77-77 proof and I. Ortiz/Brown 5-2 favorite edge outweigh Complex Charlie's one-step class rise from Md80k despite the Aqu 6f win. #9 Complex Charlie has the nod over #3 Spherical because usable 73-75 Beyers and a dirt win clear Spherical's 66 same-race led-and-weakened figure for the co-key slot. #3 Spherical and #5 Dark Force are very close for the exacta completer tier — Spherical's same-race forward trip gives him the edge, with Weaver firster #5 the style-diverse backup on soft ceiling.
Criteria leads the card, with Dark Force, Royal Enclosure, and Complex Charlie the next best options. Dark Force is the main alternative — same-tag Md115k 77-77 proof and I. Ortiz/Brown 5-Criteria favorite edge outweigh Complex Charlie's one-step class rise from Md80k despite the Aqu 6f win.